Fairfield REO statistics: January 2009

1/15/09:

Here's a snapshot of the REO market in Fairfield as of the beginning of January 2009.


Items of note:
1.) Asking price and Selling price are merging: indicates that buyers and sellers both agree on price. This predicts the bottom of the market (for this segment in this market) as there is no downward pressure from buyers.
2.) Sales prices have adjusted downward dramatically over the last 6 months.
3.) Volume of REO activity has exploded - now dominating the market.

Questions or Comments? Call or email me....

Mitch Todd/Realtor

owner, Tam Realty
415-259-7082

Recovery: Marin Condo/Townhomes

Are we nearing the bottom for condos and townhomes in Marin County?

One sector of our real estate market here in Marin has begun to stand out, condominiums and townhomes.

In my previous blogs, I have presented the raw statistics of units sold and price changes over the last year or two. Now I've taken that analysis to the next step - and below you will find sales data for the last 15 years. You can clearly see the market correction over the last couple of years. More than that, though, I've plotted a baseline 5% appreciation line as a comparison (see notes below for sources).

You can see that the chart below reflects a sales volume in line with "pre-boom" figures. It also predicts a sales price (average sales price, in this case) nearing that of historical appreciation rates (see notes below). Furthermore, many analysts and economists have targeted a 35%-37% drop in nationwide sales prices to mark the bottom of the market. For Marin County condos/townhomes, that means that we are quickly nearing the target bottom. Now, keep in mind that the concept of an actual bottom of the market is fuzzy at best (will we know when we reach it), and that each market nationwide will certainly perform independently.

Enough said - check out the chart and contact me with questions and comments!

Mitch Todd/Realtor at Tam Realty

415-259-7082

NOTES:

---I selected an average rate of appreciation of 5% after researching several sources. First, nationwide appreciation before the real estate boom (1975 - 1998) averages just over 4%. California appreciation for the same timeframe averaged an astounding 7.9% (source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight). Inflation (excluding the high inflation period of the '70s) has run around 3.5% (source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight). So, I've settled on 5%. You may consider another rate - feel free!

---Another note: I have selected average sales price for my data - honestly, it's easier for gather than median. That said, average sales price can be skewed by 'out of the ordinary' sales, high or low. As a rule of thumb, in Marin County, average sales prices exceed median sales prices due to a few select 'luxury' products skewing the data. For condos/townhomes, sales on DeSilva Island are an example of this. For reference, Dec. '08 average sales price for a condo/townhome in Marin was around $474K, while the median price was around $405K.

Marin County housing market statistics: Dec 2008

2008 is in the books - and I have compiled Marin County's stats below.

Overall, our Multiple Listing Service, BAREIS, reported 1,839 transactions in the County of Marin in 2008. This figure includes single family homes, condo/townhomes, business opportunities, farms and vacant land. The total 1,839 transactions represent a 20% decrease from the total figure of 2,717 reported in 2007.

1,543 single family (detached) homes were reported sold in 2008. That figure is down 18% from the 2007 figure of 1,998 homes. While average sales prices held strong for the first quarter of 2008, by the end of the year the average sales price had dropped 24% to $1,055K.

499 condo/townhomes sold in Marin County in 2008. This is about even with the 501 units sold in 2007. The average sales price fell 30% to $365K.

For more information, please feel free to contact me.
Mitch Todd/Realtor(R)
owner, Tam Realty
415-259-7082